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Fei Peng's words are straightforward, without too many technical terms.
There was an article in QQ Mail, along with some terms related to pessimistic economics, and the term "Fei Peng."
I didn't know about it before. When I clicked in, it indicated that it had been deleted for violating rules.
This surprised and intrigued me a bit.
I generally want to see non-mainstream viewpoints or those that influence certain patterns.

I used Bing to search and found this article. On Sunday morning at 8:30, I lay in bed wanting to finish reading the article before getting up.
After half an hour, I found there were still two-fifths left. Many viewpoints and methods are still worth learning. I got up first.
I shared the link with my wife via WeChat, and I clicked the link to check it out. I found the link was blocked. It indicated a violation, but fortunately, I could copy the link to read in the browser.

I copied it directly because the master's speech was simple and easy to understand, and it didn't need to be internalized.
I also followed him on Xueqiu.

[!NOTE]
I often tell many researchers not to blindly make simple comparisons when studying the world economy. I estimate that many research reports make such mistakes, frequently comparing with the 1970s and 1980s. Such comparisons are purely for filling up reports. From my perspective, I wouldn't even finish reading them; I would just tear them up and throw them in the trash. I actually feel quite sorry for these brokerage researchers. Why? Because whenever there's an issue, they have to write a report, and writing a report requires tens of thousands of words. It's so hard, yet no one reads it.

The top-level generational shift, which is often referred to as cyclical generational change, what is it really? Remember one thing: the top-level generational shift is ideological. The development of social politics is essentially a cyclical phenomenon of collective ideology, which corresponds to the "left" and "right" that everyone learned in ideological and political courses, left-leaning and right-leaning, left-wing and right-wing, collective and individual. The fluctuations of these elements are the greatest changes in the world economic cycle.

What is the current situation? The statement made by the top leader is very accurate: "A great change unseen in a century" (百年未有之大变局), essentially marks the end of a complete cycle from the Great Depression of 1929 to the post-World War II era. The world has gradually shifted from the extreme right after World War II to center-right, then slightly to center-left, and then to the extreme left over the past 20 years, ultimately leading to a resurgence of the right. This world is very interesting; no direction is absolutely correct.

I have always advised everyone not to argue online. I stand on the left, you stand on the right, PK, and insist on discussing who is the best, who is the most correct. There is no such thing. It's like wanting to find a girlfriend who is beautiful, tall, has a big chest, a slim waist, is wealthy, and loves you dearly. You're asking for too much; just pick one. Where is perfectionism? The final result is that in the process of movement, it affects politics, which in turn affects the economy, which then impacts the financial market. Always remember the logic of the pyramid.

[!NOTE]
China is also moving towards inclusiveness and integration, which is why we have had a series of operations like entering the market, WTO, and reform and opening up. I often say that women in families are naturally right-wing. The right has a typical characteristic: it can be called populism, nationalism, or patriotism. Extreme right can be called Nazism. But the characteristics of the right are very clear: "I am not wrong; it’s all your fault." That is the right.

Women in families naturally carry this trait. Of course, I am not discriminating against women; this is in your DNA, carried in the two X chromosomes. If the males in the family are left-wing and the family is happy, what does that mean? "Wife, it's okay, it's all my fault." The male is left-wing, and the family is good, left + right.

If both men and women are left-wing, it is simply incredibly happy. When the man comes home, the woman puts down her slippers and says, "Honey, you play games for a while; I'm cooking. I'll call you when it's ready." This man really goes to play games, and after dinner, he says, "You take a break and watch a show; I'll wash the dishes." You must not be a typical straight man who tosses the pot and goes to play again. If you do that for a long time, she will become right-wing.

At this point, if you also show left-wing characteristics, your family will be integrated. If there are two right-wingers at home, it’s doomed; it’s all your fault, I’m not wrong. Why is it my fault? It’s your fault; you did something wrong. Generally speaking, straight men and women don’t make a good combination; two right-wingers lead to war, fighting, and divorce.

Don’t think this is just about discussing family and marriage; it’s also about discussing nations and the world. When the combination between countries becomes entirely left-wing, it creates a favorable historical environment for inclusiveness, integration, and global growth. When it’s all right-wing, it leads to war.

[!NOTE]
It’s the same in every country. In the 1970s and 1980s, the UK had anti-Chinese sentiments, and now it has started to be anti-Muslim again. This is normal. The turmoil in the world is not simply reflected in pure assets. A few days ago, the UK introduced a new policy: anyone who is not a British citizen will, in principle, have to pay inheritance tax. The UK government will also collect your inheritance tax. I used to tell many wealthy people not to think about tax evasion every day. When inclusiveness and integration are present, hiding some private money is fine. But when everything turns right-wing, hiding private money will lead to disaster. What is the big trouble in the world now? Finding a place with a low tax rate to pay what you owe. When Trump came to power, he said that if you were willing to bring capital back to the US, it would all be legalized at a 20% tax rate. Look at how much capital flowed back! So you need to understand the general framework and characteristics of left and right; that is the true essence of my book, but it was deleted.

If you understand this, you can penetrate it into the economy, interest rates, and assets; you will be clear about it. This is the essence of major asset classes, the real essence. If you ask who created this, it was people like Soros and Benson; the overall framework is the same for everyone.

[!NOTE]
I might send my youngest son to Japan next year. I made it very clear to him: I don’t need you to study artificial intelligence or AI. Why? You don’t seem that smart, and you’re not an IT guy. Just learn Japanese well; getting into a good school would be great. There are many traditional noble girls in there; just marry one. It’s best if their families are all 80 or 90 years old; you’ll win by lying down. When their families pass away in the next few years, the house will be yours, the equity will be yours, the land will be yours, the wealth will be yours, and the savings will be yours. We will participate in Japan's 40-year wealth redistribution. Buffett participates with money; we participate with people. Essentially, it’s the same. You buy stocks; I marry my son off. This is all about participating in wealth distribution.

You need to understand what the core of Japan is. The core of Japan is participation in distribution, not participation in growth. Many people don’t understand this because they have never participated in distribution domestically. They always think about where growth is happening. If I get closer to power, resources, and capital, I will eat more, while those selling labor will eat less. When economic growth slows down, the lowest tier will have no food to eat. Economic growth of 5 may feel completely different across various classes, so some people online say economic data is fabricated. Is it really fabricated? Maybe not. Five represents the overall cake, while your feeling only represents your class.

[!NOTE]
First, after the pandemic in 2020, during the Changbai Mountain Forum, I made it very clear to everyone that I said very bluntly that the asset-liability situation of Chinese residents had problems. At that time, the brokerages were all very happy because they always needed to be happy and could only go long. But for us, coming from a hedge fund background, I couldn’t do that; if I did, I would be finished. My money was in there. After October 8, was anyone still in there? Don’t self-anesthetize; that’s nonsense. Generally speaking online, it’s okay to use such things to fool others, but if you believe it yourself, you’re done. It’s like back then when they said, "6000 points is not a dream; 10,000 points is just the beginning." Remember, that was said to retail investors. If you believed it, then you were finished. What’s the core? From our perspective, it’s very clear that everyone’s expectations are very high, but reality is very cruel.

During those two years, when I communicated with various public funds every quarter, they couldn’t understand the current economic situation. For example, when I talked to them about ride-hailing drivers and food delivery, my research samples during those two years were from the lower class. When economic growth and consumption expansion occur, the research samples are wealthy people first going to five-star hotels, wealthy people first buying supercars, wealthy people first eating seafood, and then your sample parameters sink down to the point where ordinary people eat seafood, drive cars, and enter five-star hotels.

But when the economy contracts, it reverses; the first to contract is the lower class. A few years ago, I said that now there are several million new ride-hailing drivers every year. Did you ever think about where these people come from? Some said rural laborers moving to the city. I said, what era is this? Are rural laborers still moving to the city? This is not when you were doing large-scale infrastructure urbanization and needed migrant workers. Go look at the current countryside; where are the laborers? Besides the elderly, weak, sick, and young, is there any labor force left? You never thought about where the suddenly increased two million ride-hailing drivers came from in the past two years? The answer is simple: the fall of the middle class. It’s just that your class is different, and you see the problem differently.

[!NOTE]
I’m talking about ride-hailing drivers. If you do research in Guangzhou, their characteristics are whether they have money or not; today they all eat Longjiang pig trotters rice. But pay attention, do you know how much the ride-hailing drivers in Beijing’s North Fourth Ring eat for lunch? 15 yuan for a boxed meal, plus a bottle of water, and it comes with pot-wrapped meat, pork stewed with vermicelli, and tender meat, delicious. But remember one thing, don’t ask how many years the meat has been; if you do, you won’t be able to eat it because it’s basically all 80-year-old Lafite. It must be frozen meat, frozen for 20 years or more; otherwise, how could it be so cheap? So don’t look down on pre-prepared dishes; I think pre-prepared dishes are great. Without pre-prepared dishes, ordinary people’s lives would be harder. With pre-prepared dishes, ordinary people have it a bit better. Why? You can fill up for 12 yuan and still get meat, enough protein.

Just remember one thing: when you’re eating for 12 yuan, do you still care how many years the meat has been? It’s very interesting when statistics in China talk about demand. I never use a single number; I never use China’s CPI. China’s CPI has always had a big problem. When the macroeconomic data was set up, the first goal of Chinese people was to solve food and clothing, to ensure basic living standards. Therefore, for us, the price fluctuations of vegetables, pork, grain, and oil are more significant than anything else.

At that time, generally speaking, when leaders went down to do visits, the first thing they did was to lift the lid at home. The action was very standard: open the pot to see what you’re eating. This action is actually because our important issue back then was to solve the eating, wearing, and living of ordinary people. So the first thing I pay attention to is your eating situation. But after the reform and opening up, if eating becomes a problem, that’s a big problem.

[!NOTE]
In Western economic research, immigration policies are studied, while China, South Korea, and Japan study population birth rates because the history of these countries determines that they will not have large-scale immigration. Don’t casually say that aging and low birth rates are happening; look at how the Nordic countries are doing. Goodness, you can’t just make a blanket comparison; have you played "Civilization"? Soon "Civilization" will be released anew, and everyone can download it on Steam to play. The starting resources are different, and the civilization and empire development strategies you form will also be different. Don’t make useless comparisons; that’s the big problem with the Chinese economy.

[!NOTE]
Investment behavior driven by government debt is theoretically reasonable as long as it can generate tax revenue. In 2008, two economists discussed whether high-speed rail should be built. At that time, I stood with the latter; it should be built because whether to build it depends on whether taxes can be collected. However, their calculation methods were different. One calculated according to standard market economics, where tax calculations depend on whether the project can make money. Once the high-speed rail from Hangzhou to Shanghai is completed, after cost accounting, if the second-class ticket needs to be 150 yuan, can the public afford it? If they can afford it and it can be operated, the project will break even. So the slogan he often mentioned is that if the project cannot make money, then in principle, high-speed rail is a waste, pure debt. His statement was incorrect at that time because China is very unique. China’s taxes are divided into direct and indirect taxes. All the cost accounting you just did was for direct taxes, but China’s characteristic is to reduce direct taxes and increase indirect taxes. This gives the Chinese people a very good feeling: our high-speed rail is fast, good, and cheap. The ticket that costs 150 yuan, we only need 60 yuan to ride, and the public feels life is convenient.

How naive and lovely you are! I just ask you, who pays the remaining 65 yuan? Then someone says, domestic debt is not debt; the state pays. How is that possible? Who pays this money? Do you know why all infrastructure must follow urbanization? It must be built in new cities. The land for high-speed rail in new cities is very cheap. Once it’s enclosed, after completing the three connections and leveling, drawing a grid, selling the land, and building houses, people born in the 80s buy houses for 10,000 or 20,000 yuan. What does this mean? This is called indirect tax; we collect indirect taxes to supplement direct taxes.

I’ll copy these first. There’s too much content; this is only less than half.
There’s also the principle of investing while watching the news broadcast. Hehe.
I’ll attach the link later.
I’ll check out the book he wrote another day, although it’s a version with 200,000 words cut out. Let’s see if there’s an original version.
When I talked about this with my wife, she said she could refute each point and talked to me for a long time.
I said she could also write a post and become a content creator. She’s not willing.

There are two types of people: one is the uninformed crowd, and the other is the clear-eyed crowd. I will always be part of the uninformed crowd.

Reference links:
Fei Peng's speech notes from November 24 at HSBC
Fei Peng: Year-end review for 2024 and outlook for 2025—Hedging risks vs. soft landing - Share your skills and levels with the world
The font on the latter website is not conducive to reading. Really.